“Unprecedented in scope and scale, the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs have triggered a cascade of economic, developmental, and geopolitical disruptions”- Abdur Razzaque, Chairman, RAPID.
RAPID’s policy recommendations for pre- and post-election actions to support LDC graduation and sustainable growth.
RAPID Data Centre (RDC)_F
Monthly Data
Monthly Data
Figure 1: Remittance Inflows in FY25 ($B)
Figure 2: Foreign Exchange Reserves in FY25 (BPM6, $B)
Economic Indicators Dashboard
Figure 3: Inflation Rate in FY25 (%)
Figure 4: Wage Rate Index in FY25 (%)
Figure 1: Yearly GDP at Current Market Price and Real GDP Growth Rate (%)
Monthly Data 2
Figure 4: Wage Rate Index in FY25 (%)
Monthly Data
Table 1: Breakdown of Asia-Pacific LDC exports by types of tariffs they face on their exports
| Indicators | FY2024-25 | Remarks | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | January | December | ||
| Remittance inflow ($B) | 2.53 | 2.19 | 2.64 | The data suggests seasonal fluctuations in remittance inflows, with a dip in January and a recovery in February. External factors like festive seasons, policy changes, and economic conditions in host countries might be influencing these trends. |
| General inflation (%) | 9.32 | 9.94 | 10.89 | The steady decline in inflation from 10.89% in December to 9.32% in February is a positive sign. However, authorities need to ensure that the reduction is supported by sustainable economic policies rather than temporary factors. |
| Food Inflation (%) | 9.24 | 10.72 | 12.92 | Food inflation has dropped from 12.92% in December to 9.24% in February, which is encouraging. However, policymakers should ensure continued price stability to prevent future spikes, especially with upcoming Ramadan demand. |
| Non Food Inflation (%) | 9.38 | 9.32 | 9.26 | Non-food inflation has shown minor fluctuations but remains stable. While it hasn't declined like food inflation, it also hasn't spiked significantly. Monitoring energy prices and exchange rates will be important in predicting future trends. |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves (as per BPM6 )_($B) | 20.95 | 19.96 | 21.39 | Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves declined in January but rebounded in February. Continued monitoring of remittance trends, import payments, and external debt obligations is necessary to maintain a stable reserve position. |
| Nepal | 4% | 0% | 22% | Almost 60% of Nepal’s exports go to India, where they receive preferential treatment under a bilateral FTA (unrelated to LDC status). |
| Solomon Islands | 10% | 73% | 5% | Main exports, wood and articles of wood, usually have MFN zero tariff in importing destinations. |
| Timor-Leste | 1% | 2% | 97% | Mineral exports face MFN duty-free treatment in importing countries. |
Quarterly Data
Figure 1 shows that Bangladesh's GDP grew by 4.22% in FY2023-24, marking the slowest growth in the past four years. Figure 2 indicates that FY24 recorded the lowest GNI per capita in Bangladesh compared to the previous three years.
Yearly Data
Figure 1 shows that Bangladesh's GDP grew by 4.22% in FY2023-24, marking the slowest growth in the past four years. Figure 2 indicates that FY24 recorded the lowest GNI per capita in Bangladesh compared to the previous three years.
Figure 3 shows that for FY 2024-25, ADB has projected a conservative GDP growth forecast of 4.3%. Figure 4 illustrates that remittance inflow in the first seven months of FY25 has been around $16 billion (approximately $2.3 billion per month). If this trend continues, the total remittance inflow for the fiscal year is expected to reach around $28 billion. Additionally, with an anticipated spike of over 10% before the two Eid festivals, the total inflow could potentially reach $30 billion.
The demise of export-led growth
Following the success of the so-called Asian Tigers, many developing countries pursued an export-led growth strategy. Such a strategy will mean the share of exports in GDP to rise thereby propelling economic growth. The average export-GDP ratio for global economies steadily rose from 11% in 1970 to 31% in 2008. It then started retreating and fell to 26% in 2020.An overwhelming majority of Asian developing economies now experience a falling export-GDP ratio (Vietnam is notable among a few exceptions).
Some countries’ export orientation peaked at much higher levels than others. Malaysia reached 120% in 1999 before gradually declining to around 70% by the late 2010s.
Taiwan saw 80% in 2011 and Thailand 70% in 2008, and by the next decade, their export orientation would fall to around 60% and 50%, respectively. China peaked at 36%—considered a remarkably high level given its size—before witnessing a rapid fall to just half of that level by 2020.
India registered a maximum of 25% in 2013 before falling to 18% in 2020. Bangladesh peaked at 20% (in 2012), which then fell steadily to 13%.Pakistan’s highest export orientation was recorded just at 15% (in 2003) and was less than 10% in 2020.
These countries are now driven by domestic demand-led growth.However, the recent trend of a rapid fall in export orientation along with uncertainty in global trade and economic environments may have profound implications for trade policy choices.
Will countries now find protectionist policies more appealing than ever?
The Low-Hanging Fruit That Remains Elusive
During the three decades of 1970—2000, the combined share of 48 UN-designated least developed countries (LDCs) in global merchandise exports fell from 1.72 per cent to just 0.45 per cent. Then the global community became upbeat about the revival of LDC trade performance as its global export share more than doubled to 1 per cent in 2011. Expectations were so high that one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set a target of the LDC share of global exports doubling further to 2% by 2020 (yes, 2020 and not 2030 as the stipulated target date for most other indicators). Since the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, the relative significance of LDCs in global export trade has virtually stagnated at 1 per cent. Achieving a 2 per cent share even by 2030 now looks like a daunting prospect. But still, it is most appropriate to fix a new timeline for this target (SDGs 17.11.1).